Ratings
B1G+A POWER RANKINGS
Every FBS team, ranked by the B1G+A model: the B1G+A rating (a weighted blend of ESPN FPI and the B1G+A Power Rating) plus record, strength of record, quality wins and head-to-head results.
Refit Oct 10, 11:38 PM CT from 446 completed 2026 games · this week: 70% ESPN FPI + 30% B1G+A Power Rating · ESPN FPI (ESPN updated 2026-10-10T08:00Z)
ALL FBS: B1G+A POWER RANKINGS
138 teams · how it works| Rk | Team | Rec | B1G+A rating | Power rtg | ESPN FPI | Off | Def | H2H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  GeorgiaUGA | 6-0 | +26.7 #2 | +22.7 #5 | +28.4 #2 | +13.8 #2 | +8.8 #7 | |
| 2 |  IndianaIU | 6-0 | +24.5 #6 | +21.6 #6 | +25.8 #7 | +8.7 #14 | +12.9 #1 | |
| 3 |  AlabamaALA | 5-1 | +26.1 #5 | +24.4 #1 | +26.8 #6 | +15.7 #1 | +8.7 #9 | |
| 4 |  TexasTEX | 4-1 | +24.5 #7 | +17.7 #7 | +27.4 #5 | +6.7 #19 | +11.0 #2 | beat OSU |
| 5 |  Ohio StateOSU | 5-1 | +27.4 #1 | +23.8 #3 | +28.9 #1 | +13.3 #5 | +10.5 #4 | |
| 6 |  Notre DameND | 6-0 | +26.6 #3 | +24.1 #2 | +27.7 #3 | +13.6 #3 | +10.5 #3 | |
| 7 |  MiamiMIA | 5-0 | +26.5 #4 | +23.6 #4 | +27.7 #4 | +13.6 #4 | +10.1 #5 | |
| 8 |  LSULSU | 4-2 | +19.9 #8 | +15.4 #9 | +21.9 #8 | +10.1 #8 | +5.3 #25 | |
| 9 |  Texas TechTTU | 5-0 | +16.4 #11 | +13.0 #14 | +17.8 #12 | +5.8 #26 | +7.2 #13 | |
| 10 |  UtahUTAH | 5-0 | +17.5 #10 | +16.3 #8 | +18.0 #11 | +10.1 #9 | +6.2 #16 | |
| 11 |  OregonORE | 3-2 | +19.1 #9 | +13.4 #13 | +21.5 #9 | +7.6 #16 | +5.7 #19 | |
| 12 |  Mississippi StMSST | 4-1 | +11.2 #29 | +9.8 #25 | +11.8 #28 | +9.1 #12 | +0.7 #64 | beat MIZ |
| 13 |  MissouriMIZ | 5-1 | +14.2 #15 | +13.8 #12 | +14.4 #18 | +6.1 #22 | +7.7 #10 | |
| 14 |  FloridaFLA | 4-2 | +12.8 #19 | +7.2 #33 | +15.2 #16 | +9.4 #11 | -2.2 #89 | beat MISS |
| 15 |  Ole MissMISS | 4-1 | +13.3 #17 | +12.8 #15 | +13.5 #21 | +9.7 #10 | +3.0 #39 | |
| 16 |  BYUBYU | 5-0 | +15.1 #13 | +14.5 #10 | +15.4 #15 | +4.8 #33 | +9.7 #6 | |
| 17 |  TennesseeTENN | 5-1 | +16.2 #12 | +11.1 #19 | +18.4 #10 | +5.8 #24 | +5.4 #23 | |
| 18 |  UCLAUCLA | 5-0 | +11.4 #27 | +14.3 #11 | +10.2 #35 | +8.0 #15 | +6.3 #15 | |
| 19 |  KentuckyUK | 5-1 | +9.6 #33 | +7.5 #29 | +10.5 #33 | +5.8 #25 | +1.8 #52 | |
| 20 |  Wake ForestWAKE | 5-1 | +11.8 #25 | +12.7 #16 | +11.4 #30 | +6.9 #18 | +5.8 #18 | |
| 21 |  NebraskaNEB | 5-1 | +14.7 #14 | +10.6 #21 | +16.5 #13 | +6.7 #20 | +4.0 #36 | |
| 22 |  USCUSC | 6-1 | +12.7 #20 | +9.8 #24 | +13.9 #19 | +8.8 #13 | +0.9 #62 | |
| 23 |  IowaIOWA | 5-1 | +12.5 #21 | +10.6 #22 | +13.3 #23 | +3.2 #45 | +7.3 #12 | |
| 24 |  MichiganMICH | 3-2 | +9.6 #34 | +6.9 #35 | +10.7 #32 | -0.1 #71 | +7.0 #14 | beat OU |
| 25 |  OklahomaOU | 3-2 | +12.2 #23 | +9.4 #27 | +13.4 #22 | +0.7 #63 | +8.7 #8 | |
| 26 |  NorthwesternNU | 4-1 | +13.4 #16 | +9.9 #23 | +14.9 #17 | +5.1 #31 | +4.7 #32 | |
| 27 |  HoustonHOU | 5-1 | +12.1 #24 | +12.0 #17 | +12.1 #27 | +7.4 #17 | +4.6 #33 | |
| 28 |  PittPITT | 5-1 | +11.4 #28 | +7.4 #32 | +13.1 #24 | +2.3 #51 | +5.0 #27 | |
| 29 |  WisconsinWIS | 4-1 | +9.8 #32 | +8.4 #28 | +10.4 #34 | +3.0 #47 | +5.3 #24 | |
| 30 |  Boise StBOIS | 4-1 | +9.6 #35 | +4.8 #45 | +11.6 #29 | +3.7 #38 | +1.1 #61 | |
| 31 |  Texas A&MTA&M | 3-3 | +13.0 #18 | +5.9 #40 | +16.0 #14 | +0.5 #65 | +5.4 #22 | |
| 32 |  ArizonaARIZ | 5-1 | +9.4 #36 | +11.1 #20 | +8.7 #40 | +6.2 #21 | +4.9 #30 | |
| 33 |  AuburnAUB | 3-2 | +10.6 #30 | +6.7 #38 | +12.3 #26 | +0.8 #62 | +5.9 #17 | |
| 34 |  BaylorBAY | 4-1 | +10.1 #31 | +7.5 #30 | +11.2 #31 | +2.1 #53 | +5.4 #21 | |
| 35 |  James MadisonJMU | 6-0 | +7.6 #41 | +9.7 #26 | +6.7 #48 | +5.4 #28 | +4.3 #34 | |
| 36 |  LouisvilleLOU | 3-3 | +12.3 #22 | +12.0 #18 | +12.5 #25 | +10.3 #6 | +1.6 #53 | |
| 37 |  SMUSMU | 4-1 | +8.0 #39 | +7.0 #34 | +8.5 #41 | +5.2 #30 | +1.8 #51 | |
| 38 |  DukeDUKE | 4-1 | +8.7 #37 | +6.7 #37 | +9.6 #36 | +1.8 #55 | +4.9 #29 | |
| 39 |  Oklahoma StOKST | 4-1 | +5.9 #48 | +4.2 #49 | +6.7 #47 | +3.7 #40 | +0.5 #67 | |
| 40 |  Penn StatePSU | 3-3 | +11.7 #26 | +6.9 #36 | +13.7 #20 | +1.9 #54 | +5.0 #28 | |
| 41 |  South CarolinaSC | 3-3 | +8.7 #38 | +7.5 #31 | +9.2 #37 | +6.0 #23 | +1.5 #56 | |
| 42 |  New MexicoUNM | 4-1 | +7.8 #40 | +5.4 #43 | +8.9 #38 | +3.4 #43 | +2.0 #48 | |
| 43 |  ClemsonCLEM | 3-2 | +5.4 #49 | +3.3 #54 | +6.3 #50 | -0.9 #75 | +4.2 #35 | beat UNC |
| 44 |  North CarolinaUNC | 3-2 | +6.1 #46 | +4.8 #46 | +6.7 #46 | -0.5 #73 | +5.2 #26 | |
| 45 |  Florida StFSU | 3-3 | +7.5 #42 | +5.4 #44 | +8.4 #42 | +3.0 #48 | +2.4 #43 | |
| 46 |  Kansas StKSU | 3-2 | +7.3 #43 | +3.8 #50 | +8.8 #39 | +2.7 #49 | +1.1 #60 | |
| 47 |  Virginia TechVT | 4-2 | +6.9 #44 | +3.8 #51 | +8.2 #43 | +4.3 #36 | -0.5 #74 | |
| 48 |  MemphisMEM | 5-1 | +3.9 #53 | +4.7 #47 | +3.5 #58 | +5.1 #32 | -0.5 #73 | |
| 49 |  UCFUCF | 3-3 | +6.0 #47 | +4.4 #48 | +6.7 #45 | +1.7 #56 | +2.7 #41 | |
| 50 |  CincinnatiCIN | 4-1 | +2.8 #58 | +0.8 #64 | +3.6 #57 | +2.3 #50 | -1.5 #82 | |
| 51 |  VirginiaUVA | 4-2 | +5.2 #50 | +1.4 #61 | +6.9 #44 | -0.7 #74 | +2.1 #46 | |
| 52 |  Oregon StORST | 4-2 | +3.5 #55 | +6.2 #39 | +2.4 #60 | +5.6 #27 | +0.6 #66 | |
| 53 |  TCUTCU | 2-3 | +6.2 #45 | +5.8 #42 | +6.4 #49 | -1.5 #78 | +7.4 #11 | |
| 54 |  UTSAUTSA | 5-1 | -0.2 #68 | +1.8 #59 | -1.0 #74 | +1.7 #57 | +0.1 #70 | |
| 55 |  VanderbiltVAN | 3-3 | +3.5 #56 | +0.4 #66 | +4.9 #52 | -0.1 #69 | +0.5 #68 | |
| 56 |  Fresno StFRES | 4-1 | +1.1 #64 | +1.0 #63 | +1.2 #64 | -1.7 #79 | +2.6 #42 | |
| 57 |  Iowa StateISU | 3-3 | +3.6 #54 | +2.6 #56 | +4.1 #54 | +0.6 #64 | +2.0 #49 | |
| 58 |  LibertyLIB | 5-1 | +1.4 #63 | +1.6 #60 | +1.3 #63 | -1.4 #77 | +3.0 #40 | |
| 59 |  IllinoisILL | 3-3 | +4.3 #52 | +3.3 #53 | +4.7 #53 | +4.5 #35 | -1.2 #81 | |
| 60 |  Texas StTXST | 2-3 | -1.1 #75 | +1.9 #58 | -2.4 #76 | +5.4 #29 | -3.5 #104 | beat UNT |
| 61 |  North TexasUNT | 4-2 | +1.8 #60 | +5.9 #41 | +0.0 #68 | +10.1 #7 | -4.2 #111 | beat UNLV |
| 62 |  UNLVUNLV | 4-2 | -1.1 #74 | -0.4 #70 | -1.4 #75 | -4.0 #102 | +3.6 #38 | beat NDSU |
| 63 |  N Dakota StNDSU | 5-1 | +1.6 #61 | +2.7 #55 | +1.1 #65 | -2.1 #82 | +4.8 #31 | |
| 64 |  KansasKU | 2-3 | +4.7 #51 | +3.6 #52 | +5.2 #51 | +2.1 #52 | +1.4 #58 | |
| 65 |  PurduePUR | 3-3 | +0.4 #66 | +2.2 #57 | -0.4 #70 | +4.5 #34 | -2.3 #92 | beat MINN |
| 66 |  MinnesotaMINN | 4-2 | +1.5 #62 | -1.4 #73 | +2.8 #59 | -2.1 #81 | +0.6 #65 | |
| 67 |  NC StateNCSU | 3-3 | +1.9 #59 | -2.1 #77 | +3.6 #56 | +1.0 #61 | -3.1 #101 | |
| 68 |  WashingtonWASH | 3-3 | +2.9 #57 | +1.2 #62 | +3.7 #55 | -0.1 #70 | +1.3 #59 | |
| 69 |  Arizona StASU | 2-2 | -0.7 #72 | -1.6 #76 | -0.4 #71 | +3.2 #46 | -4.7 #114 | |
| 70 |  Georgia StGAST | 4-1 | -2.2 #79 | +0.3 #67 | -3.2 #81 | +3.4 #44 | -3.1 #99 | |
| 71 |  ArkansasARK | 2-4 | -0.4 #69 | -3.1 #84 | +0.7 #66 | -3.9 #100 | +0.8 #63 | |
| 72 |  ColoradoCOLO | 2-3 | -1.3 #76 | -2.8 #82 | -0.6 #73 | -4.4 #103 | +1.6 #54 | |
| 73 |  Michigan StMSU | 2-4 | +0.5 #65 | -1.5 #74 | +1.4 #61 | -3.6 #97 | +2.1 #45 | beat TOL |
| 74 |  ToledoTOL | 4-2 | -0.1 #67 | -0.2 #69 | -0.1 #69 | +3.7 #41 | -3.8 #109 | |
| 75 |  West VirginiaWVU | 3-3 | -0.5 #70 | -4.8 #92 | +1.4 #62 | +3.8 #37 | -8.6 #128 | |
| 76 |  East CarolinaECU | 3-2 | -2.9 #81 | +0.7 #65 | -4.4 #85 | -1.1 #76 | +1.8 #50 | |
| 77 |  South FloridaUSF | 4-2 | -1.8 #77 | -0.0 #68 | -2.6 #78 | -2.2 #84 | +2.2 #44 | |
| 78 |  CaliforniaCAL | 3-3 | -3.5 #83 | -3.5 #86 | -3.5 #82 | -1.8 #80 | -1.7 #85 | beat SYR |
| 79 |  SyracuseSYR | 2-3 | -0.6 #71 | -2.6 #80 | +0.2 #67 | -0.1 #68 | -2.5 #96 | |
| 80 |  Louisiana TechLT | 3-2 | -4.8 #86 | -3.7 #87 | -5.3 #90 | +1.3 #60 | -4.9 #116 | |
| 81 |  Georgia TechGT | 2-3 | -0.8 #73 | -1.5 #75 | -0.5 #72 | -0.4 #72 | -1.1 #80 | |
| 82 |  W MichiganWMU | 4-2 | -3.6 #84 | -2.3 #78 | -4.2 #83 | -3.7 #98 | +1.5 #57 | |
| 83 |  Air ForceAFA | 4-1 | -5.1 #87 | -4.3 #89 | -5.4 #91 | -3.5 #96 | -0.8 #78 | |
| 84 |  MarylandMD | 2-4 | -2.1 #78 | -1.0 #71 | -2.5 #77 | +1.4 #59 | -2.4 #94 | |
| 85 |  LouisianaUL | 4-2 | -3.9 #85 | -2.7 #81 | -4.4 #84 | -2.9 #91 | +0.1 #69 | |
| 86 |  ArmyARMY | 3-2 | -3.2 #82 | -4.2 #88 | -2.8 #80 | -2.5 #88 | -1.7 #86 | |
| 87 |  FAUFAU | 4-1 | -6.8 #98 | -5.7 #94 | -7.3 #97 | +0.4 #66 | -6.1 #123 | |
| 88 |  TulaneTULN | 2-3 | -2.8 #80 | -3.2 #85 | -2.6 #79 | -7.0 #118 | +3.9 #37 | |
| 89 |  Utah StateUSU | 2-4 | -7.4 #99 | -7.9 #106 | -7.1 #96 | -9.5 #131 | +1.6 #55 | beat TROY |
| 90 |  TroyTROY | 3-2 | -6.3 #96 | -6.3 #98 | -6.3 #93 | -3.0 #93 | -3.3 #102 | |
| 91 |  App StateAPP | 3-2 | -6.5 #97 | -6.7 #101 | -6.4 #94 | -4.8 #105 | -1.9 #88 | |
| 92 |  Boston CollegeBC | 2-3 | -5.5 #91 | -6.4 #100 | -5.1 #89 | -8.5 #127 | +2.0 #47 | |
| 93 |  South AlabamaUSA | 4-2 | -7.8 #101 | -8.2 #108 | -7.6 #100 | +3.4 #42 | -11.6 #136 | |
| 94 |  NavyNAVY | 2-3 | -6.1 #95 | -3.0 #83 | -7.5 #98 | -2.1 #83 | -0.9 #79 | beat TLSA |
| 95 |  TulsaTLSA | 3-3 | -5.2 #89 | -6.0 #95 | -4.8 #87 | -4.4 #104 | -1.6 #83 | |
| 96 |  OhioOHIO | 4-2 | -9.1 #105 | -5.0 #93 | -10.9 #110 | -3.2 #94 | -1.8 #87 | beat JXST |
| 97 |  Jax StateJXST | 4-2 | -7.6 #100 | -4.7 #91 | -8.8 #101 | -2.2 #86 | -2.5 #95 | |
| 98 |  FIUFIU | 3-2 | -8.0 #102 | -4.6 #90 | -9.5 #104 | -10.1 #135 | +5.5 #20 | |
| 99 |  Miami OHM-OH | 3-3 | -9.0 #104 | -6.2 #97 | -10.2 #108 | -2.7 #90 | -3.5 #103 | beat CONN |
| 100 |  UConnCONN | 3-3 | -5.7 #92 | -1.3 #72 | -7.6 #99 | +1.5 #58 | -2.8 #97 | |
| 101 |  San Diego StSDSU | 2-4 | -5.9 #93 | -7.0 #102 | -5.4 #92 | -3.4 #95 | -3.6 #107 | |
| 102 |  StanfordSTAN | 2-4 | -9.8 #109 | -7.9 #105 | -10.6 #109 | -2.2 #85 | -5.7 #121 | |
| 103 |  GA SouthernGASO | 2-4 | -5.3 #90 | -2.5 #79 | -6.5 #95 | -2.4 #87 | -0.0 #72 | |
| 104 |  TempleTEM | 2-4 | -5.1 #88 | -6.1 #96 | -4.7 #86 | -4.0 #101 | -2.2 #90 | |
| 105 |  RutgersRUTG | 1-4 | -6.0 #94 | -8.1 #107 | -5.1 #88 | +0.1 #67 | -8.2 #127 | |
| 106 |  Colorado StCSU | 2-3 | -10.3 #110 | -10.6 #117 | -10.1 #106 | +3.7 #39 | -14.3 #137 | |
| 107 |  C MichiganCMU | 3-3 | -12.3 #116 | -10.8 #119 | -12.9 #115 | -8.5 #128 | -2.3 #91 | |
| 108 |  San José StSJSU | 3-3 | -12.1 #114 | -10.6 #116 | -12.7 #113 | -7.5 #122 | -3.1 #100 | beat EMU |
| 109 |  E MichiganEMU | 4-3 | -14.2 #124 | -12.7 #123 | -14.8 #124 | -7.5 #123 | -5.2 #117 | beat MASS |
| 110 |  UMassMASS | 4-2 | -12.1 #115 | -9.6 #112 | -13.2 #117 | -7.3 #121 | -2.4 #93 | |
| 111 |  DelawareDEL | 2-3 | -11.4 #112 | -9.9 #114 | -12.0 #111 | -6.3 #111 | -3.6 #105 | |
| 112 |  NevadaNEV | 2-3 | -9.5 #108 | -9.6 #111 | -9.5 #103 | -5.9 #108 | -3.6 #106 | |
| 113 |  Arkansas StARST | 2-4 | -9.4 #106 | -8.6 #109 | -9.8 #105 | -2.9 #92 | -5.7 #120 | |
| 114 |  Kennesaw StKENN | 1-4 | -9.5 #107 | -7.8 #104 | -10.2 #107 | -7.1 #119 | -0.7 #76 | |
| 115 |  WyomingWYO | 3-3 | -15.8 #127 | -14.5 #131 | -16.4 #127 | -13.8 #138 | -0.8 #77 | beat HAW |
| 116 |  Hawai'iHAW | 1-4 | -12.5 #120 | -13.5 #125 | -12.1 #112 | -8.7 #130 | -4.8 #115 | beat NMSU |
| 117 |  New Mexico StNMSU | 2-4 | -12.3 #117 | -9.7 #113 | -13.4 #119 | -5.3 #106 | -4.4 #113 | beat WKU |
| 118 |  Western KYWKU | 2-4 | -12.4 #118 | -10.3 #115 | -13.3 #118 | -3.8 #99 | -6.5 #125 | |
| 119 |  UABUAB | 3-3 | -13.1 #121 | -11.3 #120 | -13.9 #122 | -8.4 #126 | -2.9 #98 | |
| 120 |  Washington StWSU | 1-5 | -8.6 #103 | -7.4 #103 | -9.2 #102 | -6.8 #113 | -0.5 #75 | |
| 121 |  Old DominionODU | 2-4 | -11.3 #111 | -6.3 #99 | -13.5 #120 | -6.3 #110 | -0.0 #71 | |
| 122 |  CoastalCCU | 2-4 | -12.4 #119 | -10.7 #118 | -13.2 #116 | -7.0 #117 | -3.7 #108 | beat MRSH |
| 123 |  MarshallMRSH | 3-3 | -15.1 #126 | -14.2 #128 | -15.5 #125 | -5.5 #107 | -8.6 #129 | |
| 124 |  RiceRICE | 1-5 | -11.6 #113 | -8.6 #110 | -12.9 #114 | -7.0 #116 | -1.6 #84 | |
| 125 |  BuffaloBUFF | 3-3 | -16.0 #128 | -14.2 #130 | -16.8 #128 | -8.3 #125 | -5.9 #122 | |
| 126 |  Sam HoustonSHSU | 1-4 | -13.8 #123 | -12.7 #124 | -14.3 #123 | -7.2 #120 | -5.5 #119 | |
| 127 |  Southern MissUSM | 1-4 | -13.3 #122 | -12.5 #121 | -13.6 #121 | -2.6 #89 | -9.9 #132 | |
| 128 |  Missouri StMOST | 1-4 | -14.8 #125 | -12.6 #122 | -15.8 #126 | -6.2 #109 | -6.4 #124 | |
| 129 |  MTSUMTSU | 2-3 | -17.7 #131 | -14.0 #126 | -19.3 #131 | -8.7 #129 | -5.4 #118 | |
| 130 |  Kent StateKENT | 2-4 | -18.5 #132 | -14.0 #127 | -20.4 #132 | -9.8 #133 | -4.2 #110 | |
| 131 |  Bowling GreenBGSU | 2-4 | -17.6 #130 | -14.2 #129 | -19.0 #130 | -9.8 #134 | -4.4 #112 | |
| 132 |  N IllinoisNIU | 0-5 | -17.3 #129 | -17.7 #134 | -17.1 #129 | -11.1 #136 | -6.6 #126 | |
| 133 |  Ball StateBALL | 1-5 | -20.0 #133 | -16.6 #132 | -21.4 #134 | -6.7 #112 | -9.9 #133 | |
| 134 |  UTEPUTEP | 1-5 | -21.7 #135 | -17.0 #133 | -23.8 #136 | -6.9 #115 | -10.1 #134 | |
| 135 |  AkronAKR | 1-5 | -20.2 #134 | -17.9 #135 | -21.2 #133 | -8.3 #124 | -9.7 #131 | |
| 136 |  UL MonroeULM | 0-5 | -23.8 #137 | -21.3 #138 | -24.8 #137 | -6.9 #114 | -14.5 #138 | |
| 137 |  CharlotteCLT | 0-6 | -22.7 #136 | -20.8 #137 | -23.5 #135 | -9.7 #132 | -11.1 #135 | |
| 138 |  Sacramento StSAC | 1-5 | -25.1 #138 | -20.7 #136 | -27.0 #138 | -11.2 #137 | -9.4 #130 |
Rk = B1G+A ranking (B1G+A rating + résumé + head-to-head; see below). B1G+A rating = 70% ESPN FPI + 30% B1G+A Power Rating this week, in points vs. an average FBS team on a neutral field. Power rtg = the pure B1G+A Power Rating (results and efficiency only). Off/Def split the Power rating (higher is better for both). H2H = moved ahead of the listed team(s) by the head-to-head rule. Records count every completed game, including FCS opponents.
* B1G+A v1.1 (blended with ESPN FPI), updated Oct 10, 2026. Model notes
HOW THE B1G+A RATINGS WORK
What the number means. A rating of +14.0 means the B1G+A model expects that team to beat an average FBS team by about 14 points on a neutral field. The gap between two teams is the expected margin between them; the home team gets a home-field edge we fit from the data (currently 3.6 points).
What goes in
- Every 2026 game involving an FBS team (scores, home/away/neutral site, and box-score yards and plays), pulled from ESPN's public scoreboard and game summaries. FCS opponents share one generic, heavily shrunk FCS rating (currently -26.2).
- Scoring margin, opponent-adjusted. A ridge regression finds the set of team ratings that best explains every margin, given who played whom and where. Margins are capped at 28 points so running up the score does not help.
- Yards per play, opponent-adjusted. The same regression on each game's yards-per-play margin, converted to points. It counts for 20% of the rating; scoring margin is the other 80%. Yards per play is steadier than the scoreboard early in a season.
- A preseason prior that fades. Each team starts from its 2025 final B1G+A rating (computed the same way from 2025 games), pulled 15% of the way back toward average. The prior counts about like 1 game(s) of evidence, so it matters in September and is mostly gone by midseason. Returning-production data is not used (no free source), and ESPN FPI is never an input.
- Offense/defense split comes from a matching regression on points scored and allowed, scaled so Off + Def = the rating.
The model is refit from scratch after every game day by the site's build script (it takes under a minute). Settings were tuned on the 2024 season only, then frozen and tested on 2025.
How it did: out-of-sample backtest
Each week of 2025 was predicted using only games played before that week (the 2025 prior came from 2024). Straight-up = picked the right winner; MAE = average miss on the final margin, in points (lower is better); Brier = accuracy of the win probability (lower is better; 0.25 is a coin flip). Win probability = 1/(1+e−gap/9.25), where gap = rating difference plus home field.
| 2025, FBS vs FBS | Games | Straight-up | Margin MAE | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B1G+A | 808 | 72.4% | 12.42 | 0.180 |
| Naive (home +2.5) | 808 | 58.8% | 16.00 | 0.242 |
| B1G+A (FPI subset) | 807 | 72.4% | 12.41 | 0.180 |
| ESPN FPI | 807 | 72.2% | 12.27 | 0.178 |
| B1G+A (Vegas subset) | 101 | 63.4% | 12.17 | 0.198 |
| Vegas spread | 101 | 70.3% | 11.38 | 0.181 |
2024 (the tuning season, so not fully out of sample):
| 2024, FBS vs FBS | Games | Straight-up | Margin MAE | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B1G+A | 798 | 69.8% | 12.82 | 0.191 |
| Naive (home +2.5) | 798 | 58.6% | 15.74 | 0.242 |
| B1G+A (FPI subset) | 797 | 69.8% | 12.83 | 0.191 |
| ESPN FPI | 797 | 70.8% | 12.37 | 0.187 |
Honest read: the B1G+A rating is far better than a naive home-team baseline and close to ESPN FPI, but FPI is still slightly better on margin error and Brier, and the Vegas spread is better than both on the games where ESPN archived a line. ESPN FPI figures come from ESPN's pregame matchup predictor; Vegas lines from ESPN's archived odds (only 101 2025 games had one).
Rating vs. ranking, and the head-to-head rule
The ratings are predictive: who would win next week. The ranking (the Rk column) also rewards what a team has done. Ranking score = B1G+A rating (the blend) + 3 points for each win above what an average Top 25-level team would expect against the same schedule (a strength-of-record measure computed from B1G+A ratings) + 1 point per win over a team in the B1G+A rating top 25. Then the head-to-head rule: if Team A beat Team B this season and B's B1G+A rating is no more than 3.5 points higher than A's, A is placed directly ahead of B. If two teams split games, or wins form a loop (A beat B, B beat C, C beat A), those results are ignored for this rule and the ranking score decides. Teams moved by this rule are marked H2H.
B1G+A vs. ESPN FPI
FPI is ESPN's own model; its inputs and weights are not public, and it uses information the B1G+A rating does not (such as recruiting and returning starters). The B1G+A rating uses only game results and box-score efficiency, so every number can be traced to games on the field. Expect B1G+A ratings to be a bit more compressed than FPI's (fewer extreme values) because of the margin cap and the shrinkage.
The B1G+A rating: blending in ESPN FPI
The B1G+A Power Rating alone was slightly less accurate than ESPN FPI in testing, especially early in the season, and blends of the two did as well as or better than either one. So the number used across the site, the B1G+A rating, is a weighted average: 70% ESPN FPI and 30% B1G+A Power Rating this week. The FPI weight is 85% through Week 4 and drops 5 points a week to a floor of 50% from Week 11 on: in testing FPI helped most in September, and the two were about even later. The weights also keep the site's numbers from jumping away from figures already published.
| Week-by-week test | Games | Straight-up | Margin MAE | Brier | Log loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024: B1G+A Power Rating (pure) | 797 | 69.8% | 12.83 | 0.1909 | 0.5601 |
| 2024: ESPN FPI (ESPN win %) | 797 | 70.8% | 12.37 | 0.1874 | 0.5485 |
| 2024: B1G+A blend (weekly FPI weight) | 797 | 71.1% | 12.39 | 0.1864 | 0.5473 |
| 2024: Fixed 50/50 blend | 797 | 70.6% | 12.49 | 0.1872 | 0.5499 |
| 2025: B1G+A Power Rating (pure) | 807 | 72.4% | 12.41 | 0.1802 | 0.5322 |
| 2025: ESPN FPI (ESPN win %) | 807 | 72.2% | 12.27 | 0.1778 | 0.5259 |
| 2025: B1G+A blend (weekly FPI weight) | 807 | 72.0% | 12.19 | 0.1788 | 0.5299 |
| 2025: Fixed 50/50 blend | 807 | 72.4% | 12.22 | 0.1781 | 0.5280 |
Each 2024 and 2025 FBS-vs-FBS game, predicted using only earlier games. ESPN FPI uses ESPN's own pregame win % and projected margin. The weekly schedule was set by judgment from these tests; 2024 was also the season used to tune the Power Rating, so it is not fully out of sample.
Where B1G+A numbers are used
- CFP Live Projection: game win chances in the 40,000-run season sim come from the B1G+A rating. The starting playoff % blends ESPN FPI's playoff % with the sim's, using the same weekly weight, and then moves live as games finish.
- Projected records use the same game win chances.
- B1G+A Top 25: 50% ESPN Strength of Record rank, 30% B1G+A rating rank, 20% loss rank, minus a bonus for wins over AP Top 25 teams, then the head-to-head rule.
- Bowl Projections (coming soon) will use the same rating and sim.
- ESPN FPI also appears on its own as a comparison column.
Model updates
- B1G+A v1.1 · Oct 10, 2026, 11:29 PM CT. B1G+A v1.1 blends the B1G+A Power Rating with ESPN FPI. It tested best for accuracy in combined 2024-2025 backtests (highest share of winners picked correctly). Some projections differ slightly from numbers published earlier. Example: Nebraska pregame playoff odds: 27.1% published vs 25.3% under v1.1.
- B1G+A v1.0 · Oct 9, 2026. Launch version (ESPN FPI-led). Reports published before Oct 10, 2026, 11:29 PM CT keep their original v1.0 numbers.