@B1GAnalytics
Projection
If the playoff were picked today: a B1G+A projection of the 12-team field built from ESPN rankings, records and strength of record. It is an estimate, not the committee's ranking.
updated Oct 10, 10:43 PM CT
| Seed | Team | Path | Record (ESPN) | AP rank | ESPN SOR rank | B1G+A rating (rank) | B1G+A playoff odds | B1G+A est. rank | ESPN FPI rank · playoff % (comparison) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Texas | Conf. leader (SEC) | 4-1 | 1 | 1 | +17.8 (#7) | 60.3% | #1 | #5 · 91.7% |
| 2 |  Notre Dame | At-large | 6-0 | 3 | 3 | +24.1 (#2) | 94.1% | #2 | #3 · 89.5% |
| 3 |  Alabama | At-large | 5-1 | 6 | 2 | +24.4 (#1) | 94.8% | #3 | #6 · 86.8% |
| 4 |  Miami | Conf. leader (ACC) | 5-0 | 4 | 4 | +23.6 (#4) | 96.8% | #4 | #4 · 93.8% |
| 5 |  Georgia | At-large | 6-0 | 2 | 8 | +22.7 (#5) | 86.4% | #5 | #2 · 86.2% |
| 6 |  BYU | Conf. leader (Big 12) | 5-0 | 8 | 9 | +14.5 (#10) | 47.9% | #6 | #15 · 39.5% |
| 7 |  Ohio State | Conf. leader (Big Ten) | 5-1 | 5 | 12 | +23.8 (#3) | 71.8% | #7 | #1 · 79.2% |
| 8 |  Texas Tech | At-large | 5-0 | 11 | 7 | +12.9 (#14) | 58.6% | #8 | #12 · 56.1% |
| 9 |  Indiana | At-large | 6-0 | 7 | 14 | +21.6 (#6) | 89% | #9 | #7 · 77.4% |
| 10 |  Ole Miss | At-large | 4-1 | 9 | 13 | +12.8 (#15) | 7.7% | #10 | #21 · 11.9% |
| 11 |  Mississippi St | At-large | 4-1 | 17 | 6 | +9.8 (#26) | 4.8% | #11 | #28 · 11.5% |
| 12 |  James Madison | Top G6 | 5-0 | NR | 27 | +11.3 (#19) | 77.6% | #29 | #48 · 29.1% |
updated Oct 10, 10:43 PM CT. Records are ESPN overall records and include every game final at update time (42 FBS finals today; not yet counted, in progress: KU @ UTAH, JMU @ GASO, BOIS @ FRES, HAW @ ASU). AP rank: AP Poll Week 6 (released Oct 4). ESPN SOR rank and ESPN FPI playoff % are ESPN figures, last updated by ESPN Oct 10, 3:00 AM CT, so they may not reflect games played since; FPI is shown for comparison only. B1G+A rating = our B1G+A Power Rating (points vs. an average FBS team, neutral field); B1G+A playoff odds come from our own season sim driven by that rating. B1G+A est. rank (ours) orders teams by the average of AP rank and ESPN SOR rank (AP-unranked = 26; ties go to better SOR). Field: top-ranked team in each Power 4 conference plus the top Group of 6 team, then the seven best remaining; seeded 1–12 by est. rank. Highlighted rows are B1G teams. Projection only, not a forecast of the final field. First four out: Utah (#12), Kentucky (#13), Iowa (#14), Florida (#15). Source: ESPN public APIs (FPI, resume, rankings, standings, scoreboard).
This week (ESPN FPI comparison, pregame): @ NEB · 70% win
This week (ESPN FPI comparison, pregame): @ #13 ORE · 15% win
This week (ESPN FPI comparison, pregame): vs MD · 99% win
This week (ESPN FPI comparison, pregame): @ WASH · 63% win
This week (ESPN FPI comparison, pregame): vs #7 IU · 30% win
This week (ESPN FPI comparison, pregame): Bye week
This week (ESPN FPI comparison, pregame): vs BSU · 100% win
This week (ESPN FPI comparison, pregame): vs #21 UCLA · 85% win
This week (ESPN FPI comparison, pregame): @ PSU · 45% win
Team cards: ESPN record from the live projection; B1G+A rating, playoff odds and projected record are ours; ESPN FPI rank and the remaining-vs-ranked chances (ESPN FPI-based Playoff Watch data, Oct 9) are shown for comparison only. Cards cover all 18 Big Ten teams, sorted live by B1G+A playoff odds (highest first).
