NEW: B1G+A Model 2.1 · Live in-game analytics for every CFB game starting Sat Oct 17 → Live Tracker
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B1G+A · All Big Analytics

LIVE BIG TEN FOOTBALL ANALYTICS

B1G+A is a projection model built on every Big Ten number there is. It projects games, power ratings, bowl spots and the College Football Playoff from those numbers.

And it's live. B1G+A updates with the latest news, injuries and press conferences, usually within the hour. When news breaks, the CFP projections, bowl projections, win chances and power ratings move with it.

Real example · Oct 12, 2026

When UCLA QB Nico Iamaleava was ruled out for the season, B1G+A dropped UCLA's rating 3 points (11.5 → 8.5). UCLA's B1G+A playoff chance moved from 33.0% to 27.8% within the hour. ESPN FPI (comparison): 28.6%.

See the live CFP odds →Follow @B1GAnalytics on X ↗

CFP odds last rebuilt Oct 12, 5:24 PM CT.

HOW B1G+A WORKS: 100% TRANSPARENT

B1G+A Model 2.1 · launched Oct 9, 2026

The big upgrade · starts Week 7 (Sat, Oct 17)

100% live in-game metrics and analysis

Win chance on every play. Every 4th-down decision graded live. Every FBS game. Starting Week 7, B1G+A tracks every FBS game play by play, as it happens. And B1G+A keeps that play-by-play data. It is B1G+A's own data, and it trains the model from here on, so B1G+A's own share grows every week.

Open the Live Game Tracker →4th-Down Leaderboard →

When B1G+A was born

The B1G+A model launched on Oct 9, 2026 (v1.0), going into Week 6. Its first game projections were posted Oct 10, 2026 for the Week 6 Saturday games. v1.1, which added the B1G+A Power Rating, followed on Oct 10, 2026 at 11:29 PM CT. It is a young model, and B1G+A says so up front.

Data first. Data only.

No opinions, no fan bias, no gut calls. B1G+A is numbers only. It is an evolving model: the B1G+A Power Rating is refit after every game day as new results come in, and every pick is graded in public on the Model Record, hits and misses.

Numbers B1G+A doesn't own (yet)

Right now B1G+A leans on public data it does not own: ESPN FPI, plus ESPN stats, scores and feeds. Sportsbook lines (DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars) are shown for comparison only. That lasts until B1G+A has collected enough of its own data. B1G+A started building its own dataset in Week 6, after the Friday game (Iowa 41, Washington 24, Fri Oct 9).

Who's B1G+A's dad?

Since you'll all want to know: it doesn't have one. It's not human. (If it did, we suspect he'd be in Lincoln wearing red, explaining why this is finally the year.) What it does have is data: B1G+A takes in the numbers and puts out its own results, with no slant, no bias, and no person picking winners.

The promise

Until the data is fully B1G+A's own, B1G+A uses only publicly available, shareable data from other providers, and always credits each one by name, wherever its numbers appear.

Borrowed data vs. B1G+A's own data, by week

The B1G+A rating is a blend. ESPN FPI's share is 85% through Week 4, then drops 5 points a week: 70% in Week 7, down to a 50% floor from Week 11 on. The rest is the B1G+A Power Rating, built from game results. Live play-by-play collected from Week 7 on feeds B1G+A's own side.

Wk 1–4
ESPN FPI 85%B1G+A 15%
Wk 5
ESPN FPI 80%B1G+A 20%
Wk 6
ESPN FPI 75%B1G+A 25%
Wk 7
ESPN FPI 70%B1G+A 30%
Wk 8
ESPN FPI 65%B1G+A 35%
Wk 9
ESPN FPI 60%B1G+A 40%
Wk 10
ESPN FPI 55%B1G+A 45%
Wk 11+
ESPN FPI 50%B1G+A 50%

See full version history →

Model versions / changelog

  • 1.x · launched Oct 9, 2026, in use through Week 6. The launch model, running mostly on public data (1.0 led by ESPN FPI; 1.1 on Oct 10 added the B1G+A Power Rating blend).
  • 2.0 · the Week 7 upgrade. 100% live in-game metrics for every FBS game, plus the start of B1G+A's own data repository (collection began in Week 6, after the Friday game).
  • 2.1 · current. 2.0 plus the updates since, such as news-driven rating adjustments.

NEW · LIVE IN-GAME ANALYTICS

starts Week 7 · Sat, Oct 17

Every play

WIN CHANCES

B1G+A updates each team's win chance after every snap.

Every call

COACHES' DECISIONS

4th down, graded live: go for it, kick the field goal or punt, and what each choice does to the win chance.

Every game

ALL OF CFB

Covers every college football game through the live feeds, focused on the Big Ten. Records kept for every game from Week 7 on.

Open the Live Game Tracker →4th-Down Leaderboard →

EVERYTHING B1G+A DOES

tap a category to open it
The B1G+A model 3
B1G+A Power RatingRefit after every game day

The lead number behind everything. B1G+A rates every FBS team in points better or worse than an average team, fit from every 2026 FBS final (game results and box-score efficiency). It is blended with ESPN FPI, and FPI's share shrinks as the season goes (70% FPI in Week 7, floor of 50% from Week 11).

Live news & injury updatesAs news breaks

When big news breaks (a QB ruled out, an injury, a press-conference update), B1G+A adjusts that team's rating, and the playoff odds, bowl spots, win chances and power ratings move with it. Usually within the hour. See the UCLA example above.

About & methodologyWhen the model changes

Plain-English notes on what feeds what, the version history and the freeze rule: once a weekly ranking or report is published, it is not changed.

Live in-game (all FBS, from Week 7) 3
Live Game TrackerEvery 30 seconds on game days

Every FBS game, Big Ten first. B1G+A win chance after every play, plus the B1G+A 4th-down call (go for it, kick or punt). The live model was trained on about 1.45 million plays and tested on the full 2025 season it never saw. Tap a game for the full breakdown.

Game pages & box scoresEvery 45 seconds during games

Each game gets a play-by-play win-chance chart (ESPN's line shown faint for comparison), the biggest swing plays, every 4th down graded against B1G+A, and a live box score.

4th-Down LeaderboardAfter each game day

Every Big Ten 4th down this season, graded on the decision (not how the play turned out): what going for it, kicking or punting was worth in win chance, so you can see which coaches make the best calls.

Scores, teams & rankings 5
Live ScoresEvery 30 seconds

Every score from ESPN's public scoreboard, with B1G, All FBS and Top 25 views. These finals are what every B1G+A pick is graded against.

B1G HubAfter each game day

Big Ten standings, team stat tables with national and conference ranks, player leaders, the B1G+ Awards and the in-season All-B1G+ teams.

Team StatsAfter each game day

Weekly stat sheets, ranks, leaders and game-by-game breakdowns for every team, built from ESPN box scores. Browse any week.

CFB Top 25Weekly (Sunday)

The B1G+A Top 25 next to the AP and Coaches polls and the CFP committee rankings once they come out. The B1G+A ballot is résumé-first and uses no preseason polls.

Power RankingsTable after every game day; card Sundays

Every FBS team ranked by the B1G+A rating, with record, strength of record, quality wins and head-to-head, plus the B1G Power Rankings card for all 18 Big Ten teams.

Playoff & bowls 2
CFP Live ProjectionDaily, and live on game days

B1G+A plays out the rest of the season 40,000 times, including conference title games and the 12-team format, to get every team's playoff and title odds, a projected bracket and each contender's path to the field. ESPN FPI's playoff odds shown for comparison.

B1G Bowl ProjectionsDaily; weekly card Sundays

Projected bowl, projected record and chance of 6+ wins for every Big Ten team, from the same B1G+A season sim and bracket.

Picks & proof 5
Weekly game projectionsWeekly, before kickoff

Every Big Ten game gets a B1G+A projected score and win chance, posted before kickoff, with ESPN FPI's win chance next to it and betting lines from named sportsbooks (DraftKings via ESPN, with FanDuel, BetMGM or Caesars where listed). Pick cards post on X.

Model RecordRe-graded after each game day

The honest receipts: every pick graded straight up, against the spread and on the over/under, hits and misses alike, plus how the live win-chance model tested against ESPN on 2025 plays.

Projection ArchiveWeekly

Every past week of B1G+A projections next to the final score.

B1G Report CardSundays, 1:30 PM CT

Grades for every Big Ten team's week.

Weekly Awards vs. officialSunday picks, Monday results

B1G+A picks Offensive, Defensive and Special Teams Players of the Week from the data on Sunday, a day before the Big Ten announces. Then it shows the B1G+A pick next to the official winner and keeps a running match count.

Money, fun & more 5
CFB PayrollsWeekly

Reported 2026 roster budgets (The Athletic's estimates) set against records and AP rank. Shows which programs are beating their payroll and which are trailing it, plus a coach-pay value list: what each coach is paid compared with his win % at his school.

GOAT PlayoffRounds open weekly

A fan-voted, 12-team all-time college football playoff. Vote on the site and in polls on X. The champion is crowned the night of Selection Sunday (Sun, Dec 6).

Drop ScheduleSet weekly schedule

When each B1G+A product posts on X and this site, day by day: Monday receipts, Wednesday path-to-the-CFP cards, Saturday live coverage, Sunday Top 25, CFP, bowls, report card, power rankings and awards.

Season ArchivesWeekly

Browse the 2026 season week by week: results, stats snapshot, rankings and reports for each week.

@B1GAnalytics on XDaily; live on game days

Where every B1G+A card drops first: picks, live game updates, polls and breaking-news analysis, usually within the hour of the news.

2.1 launch

The B1G+A Model · Week 7 projections

THIS WEEK'S B1G+A PICKS

Projected scores from the B1G+A Model, posted before kickoff and graded against the final. Every pick stays on the board, hit or miss. Past weeks, graded →

B1G+A RECORD

green = .500 or better · red = below .500
ALL-TIMEsince 10/10/26 · 7 gradedLATEST WEEKWeek 6 · 7 graded · 0 pending
Straight upprojected winner won4-3.571 4-3.571
Against the spreadB1G+A lean vs. DraftKings5-2.714 5-2.714
Over/underB1G+A lean vs. DraftKings3-4.429 3-4.429
Avg margin errorprojected vs. actual margin8.9pts8.9pts

Iowa at Washington (Fri., Oct 9, 2026, 8 PM CT) kicked off before B1G+A launched (Oct 10, 2026), so it is not in the pick record.

B1G+A DROP SCHEDULE

Full weekly schedule →
Next dropSee the weekly schedule

    WEEK 7 PROJECTIONS

    Past weeks, graded →
    Game (CT)B1G+A projection (win %)ESPN FPI win %
    WASH @ PUR
    Fri Oct 16, 7:00 PM CT · Fox    		PUR 28-25 (58%)PUR 60%
    Lines as of Mon 5:27 PM CT · via VegasInsider; o = opening line
    DraftKingsPUR -3.5 (o -2.5)
    O/U 52.5 (o 51.5)
    FanDuelPUR -3.5 (o -2.5)
    O/U 51.5
    CaesarsPUR -3.5 (o -2.5)
    O/U 52.5 (o 51.5)
    OSU @ IU
    Sat Oct 17, 11:00 AM CT · Fox    		IU 26-25 (51%)OSU 52%
    Lines as of Mon 5:27 PM CT · via VegasInsider; o = opening line
    DraftKingsOSU -3.5 (o pick'em)
    O/U 50.5 (o 48.5)
    FanDuelOSU -3.5 (o pick'em)
    O/U 50.5 (o 48.5)
    CaesarsOSU -3.5 (o pick'em)
    O/U 51 (o 48.5)
    NU @ MSU
    Sat Oct 17, 11:00 AM CT · Peacock    		NU 29-19 (73%)NU 79%
    Lines as of Mon 5:27 PM CT · via VegasInsider; o = opening line
    DraftKingsNU -7.5 (o -8.5)
    O/U 48.5 (o 47.5)
    FanDuelNU -7.5 (o -8.5)
    O/U 48.5 (o 47.5)
    CaesarsNU -7.5 (o -8.5)
    O/U 49 (o 47.5)
    RUTG @ MD
    Sat Oct 17, 11:30 AM CT · BTN    		MD 33-27 (67%)MD 61%
    Lines as of Mon 5:27 PM CT · via VegasInsider; o = opening line
    DraftKingsMD -6 (o -4.5)
    O/U 56.5 (o 58.5)
    FanDuelMD -5.5 (o -4.5)
    O/U 57.5 (o 58.5)
    CaesarsMD -6 (o -4.5)
    O/U 56.5 (o 58.5)
    PSU @ MICH
    Sat Oct 17, 2:30 PM CT · CBS    		MICH 25-23 (55%)MICH 55%
    Lines as of Mon 5:27 PM CT · via VegasInsider; o = opening line
    DraftKingsMICH -6.5
    O/U 42.5 (o 51.5)
    FanDuelMICH -6.5
    O/U 41.5 (o 51.5)
    CaesarsMICH -6.5
    O/U 42.5 (o 51.5)
    WIS @ UCLA
    Sat Oct 17, 6:30 PM CT · NBC    		UCLA 26-25 (54%)UCLA 58%
    Lines as of Mon 5:27 PM CT · via VegasInsider; o = opening line
    DraftKingsUCLA -2.5 (o -3)
    O/U 45.5 (o 49.5)
    FanDuelUCLA -2.5 (o -3)
    O/U 44.5 (o 49.5)
    CaesarsUCLA -2.5 (o -3)
    O/U 45 (o 49.5)
    NEB @ ORE
    Sat Oct 17, 10:00 PM CT · Fox    		ORE 30-25 (63%)ORE 66%
    Lines as of Mon 5:27 PM CT · via VegasInsider; o = opening line
    DraftKingsORE -7.5 (o -21.5)
    O/U 52.5 (o 51.5)
    FanDuelORE -7.5 (o -21.5)
    O/U 52.5 (o 51.5)
    CaesarsORE -7.5 (o -21.5)
    O/U 52.5 (o 51.5)

    All 7 Week 7 games involving a Big Ten team. B1G+A projection = projected winner and score from the B1G+A Model, with its win chance. ESPN FPI win % (Matchup Predictor) is shown for comparison and is not B1G+A. Week 6 and earlier projections, with results →

    B1G+A LIVE WIN PROB.

    Week 7 · as of Oct 12, 5:28 PM CT

    Pregame · B1G+A

    WASH42%@58%PUR

    B1G+A pregame · Fri Oct 16, 7:00 PM CT · Fox · PUR favored

    ESPN FPI (comparison), pregame: PUR 60%

    Lines as of Mon 5:27 PM CT · via VegasInsider; o = opening line
    DraftKingsPUR -3.5 (o -2.5)
    O/U 52.5 (o 51.5)
    FanDuelPUR -3.5 (o -2.5)
    O/U 51.5
    CaesarsPUR -3.5 (o -2.5)
    O/U 52.5 (o 51.5)
    OSU49%@51%IU

    B1G+A pregame · Sat Oct 17, 11:00 AM CT · Fox · IU favored

    ESPN FPI (comparison), pregame: OSU 52%

    Lines as of Mon 5:27 PM CT · via VegasInsider; o = opening line
    DraftKingsOSU -3.5 (o pick'em)
    O/U 50.5 (o 48.5)
    FanDuelOSU -3.5 (o pick'em)
    O/U 50.5 (o 48.5)
    CaesarsOSU -3.5 (o pick'em)
    O/U 51 (o 48.5)
    NU73%@27%MSU

    B1G+A pregame · Sat Oct 17, 11:00 AM CT · Peacock · NU favored

    ESPN FPI (comparison), pregame: NU 79%

    Lines as of Mon 5:27 PM CT · via VegasInsider; o = opening line
    DraftKingsNU -7.5 (o -8.5)
    O/U 48.5 (o 47.5)
    FanDuelNU -7.5 (o -8.5)
    O/U 48.5 (o 47.5)
    CaesarsNU -7.5 (o -8.5)
    O/U 49 (o 47.5)
    RUTG33%@67%MD

    B1G+A pregame · Sat Oct 17, 11:30 AM CT · BTN · MD favored

    ESPN FPI (comparison), pregame: MD 61%

    Lines as of Mon 5:27 PM CT · via VegasInsider; o = opening line
    DraftKingsMD -6 (o -4.5)
    O/U 56.5 (o 58.5)
    FanDuelMD -5.5 (o -4.5)
    O/U 57.5 (o 58.5)
    CaesarsMD -6 (o -4.5)
    O/U 56.5 (o 58.5)
    PSU45%@55%MICH

    B1G+A pregame · Sat Oct 17, 2:30 PM CT · CBS · MICH favored

    ESPN FPI (comparison), pregame: MICH 55%

    Lines as of Mon 5:27 PM CT · via VegasInsider; o = opening line
    DraftKingsMICH -6.5
    O/U 42.5 (o 51.5)
    FanDuelMICH -6.5
    O/U 41.5 (o 51.5)
    CaesarsMICH -6.5
    O/U 42.5 (o 51.5)
    WIS46%@54%UCLA

    B1G+A pregame · Sat Oct 17, 6:30 PM CT · NBC · UCLA favored

    ESPN FPI (comparison), pregame: UCLA 58%

    Lines as of Mon 5:27 PM CT · via VegasInsider; o = opening line
    DraftKingsUCLA -2.5 (o -3)
    O/U 45.5 (o 49.5)
    FanDuelUCLA -2.5 (o -3)
    O/U 44.5 (o 49.5)
    CaesarsUCLA -2.5 (o -3)
    O/U 45 (o 49.5)
    NEB37%@63%ORE

    B1G+A pregame · Sat Oct 17, 10:00 PM CT · Fox · ORE favored

    ESPN FPI (comparison), pregame: ORE 66%

    Lines as of Mon 5:27 PM CT · via VegasInsider; o = opening line
    DraftKingsORE -7.5 (o -21.5)
    O/U 52.5 (o 51.5)
    FanDuelORE -7.5 (o -21.5)
    O/U 52.5 (o 51.5)
    CaesarsORE -7.5 (o -21.5)
    O/U 52.5 (o 51.5)

    Lead number = B1G+A: the B1G+A in-game model once a game kicks off; before kickoff, the B1G+A pregame win chance (B1G+A Model 2.1 projection). ESPN FPI (comparison) is shown smaller underneath and is not B1G+A. Updates every 15 min on game days.

    * B1G+A Model 2.1, updated Oct 12, 2026. Model notes · Version history

    The B1G+ take: Calibration check: B1G+A picks carried an average pregame FPI win chance of 74%, so you'd expect about 5.2 of 7 right; it got 4. With 7 games that is far too small a sample to say the model is well calibrated, and B1G+A will keep tracking it in the open.

    THE PROOF

    everything else on this site backs up the model

    Accountability

    MODEL RECORD

    The honest receipts: full projection scorecard plus win-probability testing on 125,614 held-out 2025 plays, compared with ESPN.

    See the scorecard →

    Receipts

    MODEL SCORECARDS

    Every card sits on the page it belongs to: game, team, CFP or Model Record, time-stamped from its X post.

    Open the scorecards →

    Playoff

    B1G CFP OUTLOOK

    Every Big Ten team's record, B1G+A est. CFP rank and ESPN FPI playoff chance, each stamped with its source and date.

    Open the outlook →

    LATEST REPORTS

    each card opens its post; find more on each game, team, CFP and Model Record page
    MINN PUR RESULTOct 10, 2026 · 11:32 PM CTB1G+A v1.0
    USC PSU RESULTOct 10, 2026 · 11:00 PM CTB1G+A v1.0
    MINN PUR FINALOct 10, 2026 · 10:21 PM CTB1G+A v1.0
    USC PSU FINALOct 10, 2026 · 10:01 PM CTB1G+A v1.0
    MINN PUR Q3Oct 10, 2026 · 9:36 PM CTB1G+A v1.0
    USC PSU Q3Oct 10, 2026 · 9:08 PM CTB1G+A v1.0

    LIVE SCORES · B1G

    From ESPN's public scoreboard, refreshing every 30 seconds. All FBS and Top 25 →

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