The B1G+A Model · Week 7 projections
THIS WEEK'S B1G+A PICKS
Projected scores from the B1G+A Model, posted before kickoff and graded against the final. Every pick stays on the board, hit or miss. Past weeks, graded →
B1G+A RECORD
green = .500 or better · red = below .500| ALL-TIMEsince 10/10/26 · 7 graded | LATEST WEEKWeek 6 · 7 graded · 0 pending | |
|---|---|---|
| Straight upprojected winner won | 4-3.571 | 4-3.571 |
| Against the spreadB1G+A lean vs. DraftKings | 5-2.714 | 5-2.714 |
| Over/underB1G+A lean vs. DraftKings | 3-4.429 | 3-4.429 |
| Avg margin errorprojected vs. actual margin | 8.9pts | 8.9pts |
Iowa at Washington (Fri., Oct 9, 2026, 8 PM CT) kicked off before B1G+A launched (Oct 10, 2026), so it is not in the pick record.
B1G+A DROP SCHEDULE
Full weekly schedule →WEEK 7 PROJECTIONS
Past weeks, graded →| Game (CT) | B1G+A projection (win %) | ESPN FPI win % |
|---|---|---|
 WASH @  PURFri Oct 16, 7:00 PM CT · Fox | PUR 28-25 (58%) | PUR 60% |
Lines as of Mon 2:43 PM CT · via VegasInsider; o = opening line DraftKingsPUR -3 (o -2.5) O/U 52.5 (o 51.5) FanDuelPUR -3.5 (o -2.5) O/U 51.5 CaesarsPUR -3 (o -2.5) O/U 52.5 (o 51.5) | ||
 OSU @  IUSat Oct 17, 11:00 AM CT · Fox | IU 26-25 (51%) | OSU 52% |
Lines as of Mon 2:43 PM CT · via VegasInsider; o = opening line DraftKingsOSU -3.5 (o pick'em) O/U 50.5 (o 48.5) FanDuelOSU -3.5 (o pick'em) O/U 50.5 (o 48.5) CaesarsOSU -3.5 (o pick'em) O/U 50.5 (o 48.5) | ||
 NU @  MSUSat Oct 17, 11:00 AM CT · Peacock | NU 29-19 (73%) | NU 79% |
Lines as of Mon 2:43 PM CT · via VegasInsider; o = opening line DraftKingsNU -7.5 (o -8.5) O/U 48.5 (o 47.5) FanDuelNU -7.5 (o -8.5) O/U 48.5 (o 47.5) CaesarsNU -7.5 (o -8.5) O/U 49 (o 47.5) | ||
 RUTG @  MDSat Oct 17, 11:30 AM CT · BTN | MD 33-27 (67%) | MD 61% |
Lines as of Mon 2:43 PM CT · via VegasInsider; o = opening line DraftKingsMD -6 (o -4.5) O/U 56.5 (o 58.5) FanDuelMD -5.5 (o -4.5) O/U 57.5 (o 58.5) CaesarsMD -6 (o -4.5) O/U 56.5 (o 58.5) | ||
 PSU @  MICHSat Oct 17, 2:30 PM CT · CBS | MICH 25-23 (55%) | MICH 55% |
Lines as of Mon 2:43 PM CT · via VegasInsider; o = opening line DraftKingsMICH -6.5 O/U 42.5 (o 51.5) FanDuelMICH -6.5 O/U 41.5 (o 51.5) CaesarsMICH -6.5 O/U 42.5 (o 51.5) | ||
 WIS @  UCLASat Oct 17, 6:30 PM CT · NBC | UCLA 26-25 (54%) | UCLA 58% |
Lines as of Mon 2:43 PM CT · via VegasInsider; o = opening line DraftKingsUCLA -2.5 (o -3) O/U 45.5 (o 49.5) FanDuelUCLA -2.5 (o -3) O/U 44.5 (o 49.5) CaesarsUCLA -2.5 (o -3) O/U 45 (o 49.5) | ||
 NEB @  ORESat Oct 17, 10:00 PM CT · Fox | ORE 30-25 (63%) | ORE 66% |
Lines as of Mon 2:43 PM CT · via VegasInsider; o = opening line DraftKingsORE -7.5 (o -21.5) O/U 52.5 (o 51.5) FanDuelORE -7.5 (o -21.5) O/U 52.5 (o 51.5) CaesarsORE -7.5 (o -21.5) O/U 52.5 (o 51.5) | ||
All 7 Week 7 games involving a Big Ten team. B1G+A projection = projected winner and score from the B1G+A Model, with its win chance. ESPN FPI win % (Matchup Predictor) is shown for comparison and is not B1G+A. Week 6 and earlier projections, with results →
B1G+A LIVE WIN PROB.
Week 7 · as of Oct 12, 2:43 PM CTPregame · B1G+A
WASH42%@58%PURB1G+A pregame · Fri Oct 16, 7:00 PM CT · Fox · PUR favored
ESPN FPI (comparison), pregame: PUR 60%
O/U 52.5 (o 51.5)
O/U 51.5
O/U 52.5 (o 51.5)
OSU49%@51%IUB1G+A pregame · Sat Oct 17, 11:00 AM CT · Fox · IU favored
ESPN FPI (comparison), pregame: OSU 52%
O/U 50.5 (o 48.5)
O/U 50.5 (o 48.5)
O/U 50.5 (o 48.5)
NU73%@27%MSUB1G+A pregame · Sat Oct 17, 11:00 AM CT · Peacock · NU favored
ESPN FPI (comparison), pregame: NU 79%
O/U 48.5 (o 47.5)
O/U 48.5 (o 47.5)
O/U 49 (o 47.5)
RUTG33%@67%MDB1G+A pregame · Sat Oct 17, 11:30 AM CT · BTN · MD favored
ESPN FPI (comparison), pregame: MD 61%
O/U 56.5 (o 58.5)
O/U 57.5 (o 58.5)
O/U 56.5 (o 58.5)
PSU45%@55%MICHB1G+A pregame · Sat Oct 17, 2:30 PM CT · CBS · MICH favored
ESPN FPI (comparison), pregame: MICH 55%
O/U 42.5 (o 51.5)
O/U 41.5 (o 51.5)
O/U 42.5 (o 51.5)
WIS46%@54%UCLAB1G+A pregame · Sat Oct 17, 6:30 PM CT · NBC · UCLA favored
ESPN FPI (comparison), pregame: UCLA 58%
O/U 45.5 (o 49.5)
O/U 44.5 (o 49.5)
O/U 45 (o 49.5)
NEB37%@63%OREB1G+A pregame · Sat Oct 17, 10:00 PM CT · Fox · ORE favored
ESPN FPI (comparison), pregame: ORE 66%
O/U 52.5 (o 51.5)
O/U 52.5 (o 51.5)
O/U 52.5 (o 51.5)
Lead number = B1G+A: the B1G+A in-game model once a game kicks off; before kickoff, the B1G+A pregame win chance (B1G+A v1.1 projection). ESPN FPI (comparison) is shown smaller underneath and is not B1G+A. Updates every 15 min on game days.
* B1G+A v1.1, updated Oct 10, 2026. Model notes
THE PROOF
everything else on this site backs up the modelAccountability
MODEL RECORD
Full projection scorecard plus win-probability testing on 125,614 held-out 2025 plays, compared with ESPN.
See the scorecard →Receipts
MODEL SCORECARDS
Every card sits on the page it belongs to: game, team, CFP or Model Record, time-stamped from its X post.
Open the scorecards →Playoff
B1G CFP OUTLOOK
Every Big Ten team's record, B1G+A est. CFP rank and ESPN FPI playoff chance, each stamped with its source and date.
Open the outlook →LATEST REPORTS
each card opens its post; find more on each game, team, CFP and Model Record page
LIVE SCORES · B1G
From ESPN's public scoreboard, refreshing every 30 seconds. All FBS and Top 25 →