The B1G+A Model · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2026
THIS WEEK'S B1G+A PICKS
Projected scores from the B1G+A Model, posted before kickoff and graded against the final. Every pick stays on the board, hit or miss.
B1G+A RECORD
green = .500 or better · red = below .500| ALL-TIMEsince 10/9/26 · 7 graded | THIS WEEKWeek 6 · 7 graded · 0 pending | |
|---|---|---|
| Straight upprojected winner won | 4-3.571 | 4-3.571 |
| Against the spreadB1G+A lean vs. DraftKings | 5-2.714 | 5-2.714 |
| Over/underB1G+A lean vs. DraftKings | 3-4.429 | 3-4.429 |
| Avg margin errorprojected vs. actual margin | 8.9pts | 8.9pts |
WEEK 6 PROJECTIONS
Posted Oct 10, 1:09 AM CT ↗| Game | B1G+A proj. | Pick | ESPN FPI win % | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 IU @  NEB | 28–24 | IU | 70% | HITFinal 20–17 |
 BALL @  NU | 13–40 | NU | 99% | HITFinal 14–45 |
 UCLA @  ORE | 29–34 | ORE | 85% | MISSFinal 17–15 |
 ILL @  MSU | 26–22 | ILL | 54% | HITFinal 38–37 |
 MD @  OSU | 16–41 | OSU | 98% | HITFinal 16–45 |
 USC @  PSU | 27–28 | PSU | 62% | MISSFinal 31–23 |
 MINN @  PUR | 30–24 | MINN | 53% | MISSFinal 13–41 |
Projected score = B1G+A Model (blend of the market-implied score and team scoring stats through Oct 3). Win % = ESPN FPI, not B1G+A. Pending games are graded once the scorecard is re-run.
* Picks posted under B1G+A v1.0; original numbers kept. Model notes
B1G+A LIVE WIN PROB.
as of Oct 10, 10:14 PM CTFinal
MINN0.0%@100.0%PURFINAL · MINN 13, PUR 41 · last B1G+A live reading 10:14 PM CT
USC100.0%@0.0%PSUFINAL · USC 31, PSU 23 · last B1G+A live reading 9:56 PM CT
UCLA100.0%@0.0%OREFINAL · UCLA 17, ORE 15 · last B1G+A live reading 6:10 PM CT
ILL100.0%@0.0%MSUFINAL · ILL 38, MSU 37 · last B1G+A live reading 6:10 PM CT
Live win probability from the B1G+A in-game model. Updates every 15 min.
* B1G+A v1.1, updated Oct 10, 2026. Model notes
THE PROOF
everything else on this site backs up the modelAccountability
MODEL RECORD
Full projection scorecard plus win-probability testing on 125,614 held-out 2025 plays, compared with ESPN.
See the scorecard →Receipts
MODEL SCORECARDS
Every card sits on the page it belongs to: game, team, CFP or Model Record, time-stamped from its X post.
Open the scorecards →Playoff
B1G CFP OUTLOOK
Every Big Ten team's record, B1G+A est. CFP rank and ESPN FPI playoff chance, each stamped with its source and date.
Open the outlook →LATEST REPORTS
each card opens its post; find more on each game, team, CFP and Model Record page
LIVE SCORES · B1G
From ESPN's public scoreboard, refreshing every 45 seconds. All FBS and Top 25 →